A PPP somewhere in Canada. Mid 2010s. Saturday night. Concrete poring of a key structure in the critical path of the project. Everything looked perfect on paper. Full closure approved Concrete plant booked Pumps lined up Crew ready Weather… “acceptable” 22:00 : Go time First trucks arrive. Pumps start. Concrete flowing. Then… rain. Not heavy. Not dramatic. Just enough to start messing with the surface. The kind of rain that kills quality slowly. The dangerous one. 23:30: First tension Quality...
1 day ago • 1 min read
Unless you want a horror story. Or an “insĂpida” story that says nothing. You don’t put on the market an unconnected series of projects. That’s not a vision. It’s election time in New Zealand. And every time I’m invited to a forum, I repeat the same message. Infrastructure needs a long-term story. A real one. What do we want to become in 30 years? Because it cannot change every time the government changes. That’s not strategy. That’s improvisation. Or shooting yourself in your foot. If a...
2 days ago • 1 min read
There is always another offer. You have to approach real estate investment with that mindset. It’s a trick many agents use. “There is another offer.” Aka: urgency. Bring your top price if you want it. Not sure if it’s legal or illegal… but it’s everywhere. Now. If the property is good. If the price is good. People should be bidding. That’s a good sign. Be careful with properties that look great… but nobody wants. Are you missing something? So, when an agent calls me and says there’s another...
3 days ago • 1 min read
Parkinson’s Law: Work fills the space you give it. “If you give yourself three years to complete something, completion will take three years.” Now replace “three” with whatever number… like eight. That’s what I keep seeing in infrastructure. Projects designed to take 8… 10… 12 years. Not because they need it. Because nobody in the room knows how fast it can actually be done. Some clients hire advisors who have never delivered a project at scale. Or with no direct experience in the type of...
4 days ago • 1 min read
There is a project that I follow even if I live now at the other side of the Pacific. It is… or it was… or it will be one day, one of the most ambitious (and game changer) infrastructure projects in the world. It was also meant to be a PPP. California High-Speed Rail The idea sounded great: Connect major cities. Reduce emissions. Transform mobility. On paper, it had everything. In reality… it had a problem. The scope was never stable… and still it’s not. Routes changed. Stations moved....
5 days ago • 1 min read
Not corruption. Not politics. Just… incompetence. A real project. $800M. In LatAm… No more details, as in this distribution list, there are too many people living in that country… Here you are the 4 red flags that would have helped you to smell blood miles away. First red flag: They didn’t understand their own project. I’m not exaggerating. They launched the RFP with: Misaligned traffic studies Outdated geotech data A design that didn’t match the environmental permits Second: They outsourced...
6 days ago • 1 min read
Selling used stuff online is hard work. A lottery. A candy box. I tried it once. In less than 5 minutes, I got a message. 30 seconds later, I knew it was a scam. Emoticons. Broken grammar. Asking for my number immediately… when the platform literally tells you not to. Block the user. Close the chat. And then do what a good SPV CEO does… Subcontract. Pass it to someone who knows better. Create the right incentives. Supervise. Manage issues. Etc. Life is just another PPP. Your standards say a...
7 days ago • 1 min read
The pattern... Different country. Different name. Same movie. A “strategic” project. Big announcements. Strong political backing. Aggressive bids. Beautiful financial models. Everyone smiling at financial close. And then… After bonuses paid and elections won… Reality. Costs go up. Time disappears. Risks… yes, those that were “managed” and “transferred to the party better able to deal with”, start showing up. Suddenly: - contracts are “reinterpreted” - assumptions were “too optimistic” -...
8 days ago • 1 min read
When people talk about successful projects, these are the usual suspects: The deal was clear from day one Risks were allocated… not hidden The wrong bidders didn’t show up Time was respected Decisions were made early The contract was readable Banks believed the story Equity had skin in the game The public side knew what it wanted Advisors added value (for once) Construction was not “optimistic” Problems were solved fast Ego was controlled Operations were considered from day one Someone owned...
9 days ago • 1 min read