If you have visited bars once in your life, you’ve had one of these moments… You know. That moment when someone brags at the bar drinking another gyn about a deal they “closed”? They talk and talk. ​ And you just know they didn’t read the contract. Yeah. This is that story—except with trains. ​ Let’s go to Sydney Airport Rail Link, late 1990s. The private consortium thought they had cracked the code: Four stations. Direct airport access. Passengers in the tens of thousands. “We’ll be printing money by Monday.” ​ Except… they forgot the basics. They had no clue about PPPs. Zero. Nada. Rien de rien. I don’t know what the public agency was thinking about… how did they give the contract to someone with zero experience? Well… that’s for another day. The thing is that they guys at the bar had signed pure demand risk. Con dos cojones. Or… with a good pair of balls… ​ Every empty seat on that train was their financial ulcer. ​ They assumed government would rescue them. Rookie mistake. ​ The forecasts promised 50,000 daily passengers. Reality delivered half. Why? Because business travellers don’t drag suitcases onto a train when a taxi drops them at the terminal door. And not every year is an Olympic Year in your city. Basic PPP thinking. Basic known your customers. ​ Well… Within months of opening in 2000, they were bleeding faster than a first-year law student in a corporate negotiation. Debt snowballed, equity evaporated, and by 2001… Poof. Operator gone. Dream dead. ​ The trains? Still running. The stations? Still standing. The original operator? Roadkill. ​ The real horror? They weren’t beaten by engineering. They weren’t beaten by politics…. The usual suspect. They were beaten by their own stupidity—signing a PPP like it was a lease for office space. ​ PPP contracts aren’t bedtime stories. If you don’t know what you’re signing, you’re not an “operator.” You’re the punchline in next year’s infrastructure conference. Don’t go crazy. Learn the basics… You can start below. ​100 Q&A About PPP that you MUST KNOW​ ​ PD 1: If you liked this email, don't keep it in secret and forward it to a friend. They will thank you enormously one day. PD 2: If somebody has sent you this email and you want to receive emails like this yourself, visit vicentevalencia.com PD 3: If you want unsubscribe, click the link below. ​ ​ |
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