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Which of these two options would you choose?
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Daniel Kahneman, the author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, did an experiment. He gave two options: Would you accept a gamble that offers a 10% chance to win $95 and a 90% chance to lose $5? Or. Would you pay $5 to participate in a lottery that offers a 10% chance to win $100 and a 90% chance to win nothing? Well… if you studied engineering, you have convinced yourself that the two problems are identical. In both, you are either richer by $95 or poorer by $5. But that’s engineering mindset… No question why we take so long to find someone that can endure us. The reality is that the second option attracts more people. A bad outcome is much more acceptable if it is framed as the cost of a lottery ticket that did not win than if it is simply described as losing a gamble. We should not be surprised: losses evoke stronger negative feelings than costs. If you have no idea what I’m talking about, you should take a look to the book below. It will teach you to avoid gambles and call some costs, investments.
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Vicente Valencia
Weekly insights on how to perform when it matters | High-stakes decisions. Real situations. No BS. | 👇JOIN +2k readers 👇
Ah… Time flies and PPPs finally arrive to the end… like a terrible elected leader term… Getting your infrastructure back at the end of a concession sounds lovely. Like removing Pedro Sanchez from office. The debt is paid. The concessionaire leaves. You get the asset. Like collecting your car after lending it to a friend. Except your friend has had it for 25 years. And “the tyres are fine” means they are still technically round. Oups… Do you remember the terms of the return? 2018 Severn...
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A few days ago, I talked about the smallest PPP in the world. It’s in Poland. 12.000€. Probably quite unknown. There are another one… this time famous. Small building. Small investment. Small transaction costs. Sorry. That last one was a joke. Scotland. 2002 Audit Scotland reviewed six school PFI projects. For Glasgow, it reported around £12 million in combined public and private sector set-up and advisory costs. Against £212 million in construction. For West Lothian? Around £2 million....