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Which of these two options would you choose?
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Daniel Kahneman, the author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, did an experiment. He gave two options: Would you accept a gamble that offers a 10% chance to win $95 and a 90% chance to lose $5? Or. Would you pay $5 to participate in a lottery that offers a 10% chance to win $100 and a 90% chance to win nothing? Well… if you studied engineering, you have convinced yourself that the two problems are identical. In both, you are either richer by $95 or poorer by $5. But that’s engineering mindset… No question why we take so long to find someone that can endure us. The reality is that the second option attracts more people. A bad outcome is much more acceptable if it is framed as the cost of a lottery ticket that did not win than if it is simply described as losing a gamble. We should not be surprised: losses evoke stronger negative feelings than costs. If you have no idea what I’m talking about, you should take a look to the book below. It will teach you to avoid gambles and call some costs, investments.
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Vicente Valencia
I talk about Personal Growth, Management, Infrastructure and More | 👇JOIN +2k readers 👇
One of my fauvorites… A toll road PPP. Beautiful business model. Traffic studies. Economic growth projections. Sophisticated demand modelling. Consultants everywhere. Like queuing for free ice-cream… The road opened in 2007. The project was the South Bay Expressway SR‑125 toll road. Everything looked perfect on paper. Except for one small detail. Drivers. They didn’t show up. The financial model predicted tens of thousands of vehicles per day. Reality? Sometimes traffic was 70–80% lower than...
Still in the UK. Now, a hospital PPP. Large. Modern. Shiny. Hundreds of millions invested. Years of planning. Procurement. Financial close. Construction. Finally… The building was delivered. Or so everyone thought. The project was the Royal Liverpool University Hospital PFI project. New hospital. Supposed to open in 2017. There was only one small problem. The building could not be used. Fire safety defects. Structural issues. Incomplete works. Entire sections of the hospital had to be torn...
Everyone relaxes after the contract is signed. Lawyers celebrate. Sponsors shake hands. The press release goes out. “Landmark infrastructure project.” “World-class partnership.” “Long-term value for taxpayers.” Champagne. Photos. LinkedIn posts. Etc. In 2018 one of the largest PPP contractors in the UK, Carillion, collapsed overnight. Not struggling. Not restructuring. Collapsed. Gone. A tomar por cul0. The company was involved in dozens of PPP projects across the UK and beyond. Hospitals....