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Vicente Valencia

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You're too expensive... now.

I once said that Preferred Bidder is the most dangerous moment in a PPP. It’s like the moment that the shark attacks in Jaws… just when you expect it less… Everyone relaxes. Champagne glasses appear. LinkedIn posts multiply. “Proud to be part of the winning consortium.” Then reality walks into the room. Let’s talk about the Malaysia–Singapore High Speed Rail. A mega rail PPP. 350 km. High-speed trains. Two countries connected. Estimated cost: $15-20 billion. The type of project ministers...

Some of the worst PPPs in the world come from capital cities trying to look impressive. Huge buildings. Architectural statements. Politicians cutting ribbons. And budgets exploding. But some of the best PPPs? They come from places nobody talks about. Take Ferguson Place Recreation Centre PPP. It sits in Fort St. John, Canada… Oh Canada! Population: about 21,000 people. Not exactly Tokyo. The city needed something simple: A recreation centre. Swimming pools. Ice rinks. Fitness facilities....

A toll road. In one of the richest regions of Europe. Northern Italy. Lombardy. Industrial powerhouse. Traffic everywhere. What could possibly go wrong? The project was called the Autostrada Pedemontana Lombarda. A massive motorway designed to connect cities north of Milan and relieve congestion around the region. On paper, it looked like a dream. Economic powerhouse region. Millions of inhabitants. Constant truck traffic. Banks were queuing to through their money to the asphalt plant. Making...

The system worked perfectly. The satellites tracked the trucks. The software calculated the tolls. The invoices were ready. The gantries were already installed across France. 173 of them. Steel structures over highways, quietly waiting for trucks to pass and pay. The project cost almost €1 billion. It was called the Écotaxe Poids Lourds. The idea was simple. Heavy trucks should pay for using the roads. Especially foreign trucks crossing France. Elegant. Who would say no to such a great idea?...

My wife had been unsuccessful for a while. She tried three times. Her ads expired those three times. $75 the higher bid. She wanted at least 100$ for an almost new bike that our son used 5-10 times max. She published the ads with 100$. The price new: 160$. She told me. I listened. Shall I call the buyer that offered me 75$? No, I said. Increase the price to $120 in the ad. Seriously? But new it’s 160 and this one is almost 2 years old. 120$, go, try. 24 hours later… Sold, 100$. WOW! My...

Alfred Hitchcock had a peculiar habit. He appeared for a few seconds in almost every one of his films. At first it was a joke. Then it became a problem. Audiences started watching the screen obsessively, trying to spot him. They were no longer following the story. They were hunting Hitchcock. So in films like Psycho, he solved it in a simple way. He appeared right at the beginning. Problem solved. Distraction gone. When I review PPP bids, clients always ask the same question. “Vicente…...

Everyone loves the construction contractor. Big cranes. Huge concrete pours. Drone videos. Beautiful. But in a PPP project… Construction lasts 3 years, maybe 4… except in NZ… around 8 years – don’t ask me why. Operations last 30. And yet, people spend 90% of their time talking about construction. Very clever. And I understand… it’s the place of the big bucks; the ministers’ visit and the Public Relationship paradise. Question 72 of the course below answers a simple question: What is a good...

You hear this word a lot in PPP meetings. Bankable. “This contract must be bankable.” Everyone nods. No one asks the obvious question. What does bankable actually mean? Let me translate. A PPP contract is bankable when a bank can look at it and say: “Fine. If everything goes wrong… we still get our money back.” That’s it. Not innovation. Not sustainability. Not beautiful PowerPoints. Money back. In Question 50 of the course below, I explain what really makes a PPP contract bankable. Because...

Innovation is one of the biggest fallacies in construction and PPP contracts. Governments love the word. It appears in every PowerPoint presented to ministers, investors and journalists. Innovation. Innovation. Innovation. But what exactly is innovation? A toilet that cleans your as$ with a water jet and eliminates toilet paper. Innovation? Maybe. Maybe not. It depends. In Question 28 of the course below, I explain how “innovation” actually works in PPP bids. How to win points if you are...

One of my fauvorites… A toll road PPP. Beautiful business model. Traffic studies. Economic growth projections. Sophisticated demand modelling. Consultants everywhere. Like queuing for free ice-cream… The road opened in 2007. The project was the South Bay Expressway SR‑125 toll road. Everything looked perfect on paper. Except for one small detail. Drivers. They didn’t show up. The financial model predicted tens of thousands of vehicles per day. Reality? Sometimes traffic was 70–80% lower than...