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Vicente Valencia

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Local markets, weak supply chains, and a $100 million mistake

I love going to local markets. I tried one this weekend. All vendors shouting: “Try this.” “Taste that.” “Best cheese in town.” “Organic honey.” Everyone fighting for your attention. It’s nice. It feels human. You try things. You buy things. You feel good helping local producers. I love that. But price is sometimes an issue. It’s not cheap. And it can’t be cheap. These guys work at very small scale. Their margins need to be enormous just to make a living. I don’t blame them. And honestly,...

I’m an engineer. By accident. But an engineer nevertheless. I’ve seen landslides during construction, and after construction. Specifications not converting properly between inches and cm. Expansion joints popping up in summer like popcorn. Pavement failing in the first winter after opening. Subcontractors going broke. Or bought by the competition you stole the project from… But still… 80% of serious PPP failures are NOT technical… They are contractual. Risk allocation errors Toxic KPI regimes...

You know I’m no fan of the World Bank. But from time to time, curiosity opens some doors. This is what I found. More than 50% of PPPs are renegotiated… Let that sink in. 50%. And usually in favor of the private sector... 50–60% of PPP contracts in developed countriesand up to 70% in emerging marketsare renegotiated within the first 5–7 years. So the contract you sign is not the contract you live with. What does it mean? Simple… It means the real risk allocationis not the one approved by...

This week I received a message from a subscriber that should make every government, agency, and consulting firm uncomfortable. It came from a man who led one of the most successful Education PPPs in the world. A $165 million program funded by USAID.Implemented across 10 districts in Sindh, Pakistan.State-of-the-art schools.A pioneering Education Management Organization (EMO) model.One of the few genuine unsolicited PPP projects in the country.A full PPP Guide & Toolkit still in use today. He...

It is a much small bag. But my wife is happier. Christmas present. She needed a new bag. Found one she liked but it was much smaller than her previous bag. She was worried. But yesterday, she said. I'm very happy with this bag. You know why? Surprise me... (but I knew the answer). As it smaller, I put less things inside, and it's much lighter. Like tender documentation. I've been heavily criticised for being a fanatic of reducing as much as I can the "space" for bidders to explain their...

Almost a year in the market. 3.5 million. Then, 3.0. Then, 2.9. I liked it, I compared it with the market. I thought that 2.8 – 2.9 mil could be a good deal. Offer: 2.75 million. Not very big, not too fancy… but a view. You have to pay well for those things in NZ… and not an investment, but a place to live. Anyway. Counter-offer… 3.2 million. The agent called it buyer’s regret. I call it, not serious. This happened in December. And this is not uncommon. I’ve seen teams that once named...

Eastern Europe. Late 2000s. If you are old enough, you can feel the context. A massive highways PPP. Toll road. Billions in capex. One of those “nation-building” projects politicians love to parade in front of TV cameras. You can smell now the country… Your consortia are seasoned. Anyone knowing how to pour asphalt on top of something lined up. Your lenders are aligned. Your traffic advisors have gone blind staring at stochastic models. Everyone is gearing up for a clean, competitive...

I buy houses, apartments and buildings from 20.000km distance. In Spain, Panama, New Zealand… and I can stay anywhere. Of course, I don’t recommend that for you. Some people want to push globalization too much. Having assets in London, NY, Madrid, Singapore, Sydney, etc. at the same time is not good for your health, nor your pocket. You miss specialization. You miss learning and knowing well a market. When bidding PPP projects, I have seen successful bidders doing so from the distance....

It happens a few weeks ago. “Tell me about Madrid and Spain, how do you do it? I heard a business case that Madrid has been able to deliver the cheapest tunnels in the world…” I did not know about that case, but my answer was simple: “Do you know how many TMBs had Madrid at the time?” Look. If you want cheap infrastructure, create a pipeline. Madrid had during more than 10 years between 7 and 8 TBMs (the machines to make tunnels in engineering slang). They are extremely costly. So, they...

A great friend of mine tells his team: “Work hard, play harder”. I can’t agree more with him. Infrastructure is a difficult business. Lots of hours of discussing, negotiating, working, arguing with people. Yes, people. Not companies, not systems. People. Along the journey you’ll have all sorts of moments. Creating all sorts of emotions. Engraving in you, amazing memories. So enjoy the journey. Don’t be a gilipollas and play harder. No matter what the contract says, if you get along well with...