The $1 Billion Lesson in Arrogance (that taxpayers paid for)


Let me tell you a bedtime story.

It’s about a classic PPP project.

However, it’s a bedtime story for the nightmares.

It starts in Australia.

Sunshine.

Kangaroos.

And a bunch of brilliant bureaucrats who thought they could outsmart the laws of project finance.

The name?

Airport Link Tunnel in Brisbane.
The year? 2010.
The cost? $4.8 billion AUD.
The outcome? A flaming, billion-dollar disaster.

You see, they had a vision.

A tunnel linking Brisbane Airport with the city.

As I said… A classic PPP.

Except it wasn't.

​
Because here’s what they did:

They forecasted 135,000 vehicles per day.
Actual usage? 56,000.

​
That’s not a small miss. That’s delusion wearing a hi-vis vest.

They gave a 45-year concession.

​
Guess how long the private company lasted?
Two years.

They put most of the risk on the private sector.
Which sounds sexy in a press release, my friends working for government agencies – I know many of you read this newsletter…

Well…

The theory of risk transfer works perfectly… until the private sector runs straight into bankruptcy court.

By 2013, BrisConnections, the private consortium behind it, was dead.
Equity wiped.
Investors furious.
Lawsuits flying.
Public confidence? Torched.

And the cherry on top? La guinda, as we say in Spanish?
Retail investors were lured in with aggressive marketing and promises of gold.

​
Some lost their savings.
Others tried to sue.
Many just cried.

Meanwhile, the government shrugged:
​"Not our problem. It was a private failure."

​
Except…

​
Who do you think inherited the road?

Yes…

Yes…

Exactly.

We keep saying PPPs are about risk transfer.

​
But what good is transferring risk if you’re handing it to people who believe PowerPoints more than traffic models?

This wasn’t a tunnel.
It was a taxpayer-funded grave for common sense.

Moral of the story?
When your traffic forecasts come from a wish and a prayer,
When your risk allocation is designed to impress, not to function,
And when your procurement is driven by headlines, not expertise…

​
You don’t get innovation.
You get insolvency.

Sweet dreams, my friends.

By the way… Want more brutal truths about PPPs, minus the buzzwords?
Click below:

$99.90

The 15 Top Lessons of a PPP Project Nightmare

Learn about:
The number 1 killer of Projects
Why this was not going to be just "another construction project, mate"... Read more

​

PD 1: If you liked this email, don't keep it in secret and forward it to a friend. They will thank you enormously one day.

PD 2: If somebody has sent you this email and you want to receive emails like this yourself, visit vicentevalencia.com

PD 3: If you want unsubscribe, click the link below.

Vicente Valencia

I talk about Personal Growth, Management, Infrastructure and More | 👇JOIN +2k readers 👇

Read more from Vicente Valencia

Last weekend, New Zealand was hit by another cyclone. If you’re still sceptical about climate change…just look at the statistics. Or your insurance premium. But that’s for another day. This time, the damage was limited. Much less than the previous cyclones. And here it comes… “They exaggerated.” “It wasn’t that bad.” “We overprepared.” The usual. Short-term memory. Short-term thinking. The same people who forget that not long ago we had: warnings that were too soft impacts that were worse...

“Surely the English hate me, but the Scots love me… and that’s what matters.” — Diego Armando Maradona There’s an immortal lesson in that sentence. You’re not going to be popular defending PPPs. Pushing PPPs. Loving PPPs. Delivering PPPs. Or being the one in the room who actually understands them. And that’s fine. Because this isn’t about popularity. It’s about outcomes. Think of: the banks the equity providers the consultants …and yes, the taxpayer When PPPs are done right, they work. When...

“I’m a PPP freak.” That’s what I told a client last week. Then I killed the deal in 30 minutes. “But this is not a PPP project.” No model. No workshops. No 200-page reports. Just experience. Because after you’ve seen enough projects, the disasters, the political theatre, the “too good to be true” bids… you start seeing patterns. Fast. You don’t need months. You need clarity. 30 minutes is enough to know: if a project is bankable… or dead on arrival if the contract creates value… or prints...