Let me tell you a bedtime story.

It’s about a classic PPP project.

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However, it’s a bedtime story for the nightmares.

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It starts in Australia.

Sunshine.

Kangaroos.

And a bunch of brilliant bureaucrats who thought they could outsmart the laws of project finance.

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The name?

Airport Link Tunnel in Brisbane.
The year? 2010.
The cost? $4.8 billion AUD.
The outcome? A flaming, billion-dollar disaster.

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You see, they had a vision.

A tunnel linking Brisbane Airport with the city.

As I said… A classic PPP.

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Except it wasn't.

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Because here’s what they did:

They forecasted 135,000 vehicles per day.
Actual usage? 56,000.

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That’s not a small miss. That’s delusion wearing a hi-vis vest.

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They gave a 45-year concession.

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Guess how long the private company lasted?
Two years.

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They put most of the risk on the private sector.
Which sounds sexy in a press release, my friends working for government agencies – I know many of you read this newsletter…

Well…

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The theory of risk transfer works perfectly… until the private sector runs straight into bankruptcy court.

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By 2013, BrisConnections, the private consortium behind it, was dead.
Equity wiped.
Investors furious.
Lawsuits flying.
Public confidence? Torched.

And the cherry on top? La guinda, as we say in Spanish?
Retail investors were lured in with aggressive marketing and promises of gold.

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Some lost their savings.
Others tried to sue.
Many just cried.

Meanwhile, the government shrugged:
​"Not our problem. It was a private failure."

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Except…

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Who do you think inherited the road?

Yes…

Yes…

Exactly.

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We keep saying PPPs are about risk transfer.

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But what good is transferring risk if you’re handing it to people who believe PowerPoints more than traffic models?

This wasn’t a tunnel.
It was a taxpayer-funded grave for common sense.

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Moral of the story?
When your traffic forecasts come from a wish and a prayer,
When your risk allocation is designed to impress, not to function,
And when your procurement is driven by headlines, not expertise…

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You don’t get innovation.
You get insolvency.

Sweet dreams, my friends.

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By the way… Want more brutal truths about PPPs, minus the buzzwords?
Click below:

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