The $1 Billion Lesson in Arrogance (that taxpayers paid for)


Let me tell you a bedtime story.

It’s about a classic PPP project.

However, it’s a bedtime story for the nightmares.

It starts in Australia.

Sunshine.

Kangaroos.

And a bunch of brilliant bureaucrats who thought they could outsmart the laws of project finance.

The name?

Airport Link Tunnel in Brisbane.
The year? 2010.
The cost? $4.8 billion AUD.
The outcome? A flaming, billion-dollar disaster.

You see, they had a vision.

A tunnel linking Brisbane Airport with the city.

As I said… A classic PPP.

Except it wasn't.

​
Because here’s what they did:

They forecasted 135,000 vehicles per day.
Actual usage? 56,000.

​
That’s not a small miss. That’s delusion wearing a hi-vis vest.

They gave a 45-year concession.

​
Guess how long the private company lasted?
Two years.

They put most of the risk on the private sector.
Which sounds sexy in a press release, my friends working for government agencies – I know many of you read this newsletter…

Well…

The theory of risk transfer works perfectly… until the private sector runs straight into bankruptcy court.

By 2013, BrisConnections, the private consortium behind it, was dead.
Equity wiped.
Investors furious.
Lawsuits flying.
Public confidence? Torched.

And the cherry on top? La guinda, as we say in Spanish?
Retail investors were lured in with aggressive marketing and promises of gold.

​
Some lost their savings.
Others tried to sue.
Many just cried.

Meanwhile, the government shrugged:
​"Not our problem. It was a private failure."

​
Except…

​
Who do you think inherited the road?

Yes…

Yes…

Exactly.

We keep saying PPPs are about risk transfer.

​
But what good is transferring risk if you’re handing it to people who believe PowerPoints more than traffic models?

This wasn’t a tunnel.
It was a taxpayer-funded grave for common sense.

Moral of the story?
When your traffic forecasts come from a wish and a prayer,
When your risk allocation is designed to impress, not to function,
And when your procurement is driven by headlines, not expertise…

​
You don’t get innovation.
You get insolvency.

Sweet dreams, my friends.

By the way… Want more brutal truths about PPPs, minus the buzzwords?
Click below:

$99.90

The 15 Top Lessons of a PPP Project Nightmare

Learn about:
The number 1 killer of Projects
Why this was not going to be just "another construction project, mate"... Read more

​

PD 1: If you liked this email, don't keep it in secret and forward it to a friend. They will thank you enormously one day.

PD 2: If somebody has sent you this email and you want to receive emails like this yourself, visit vicentevalencia.com

PD 3: If you want unsubscribe, click the link below.

Vicente Valencia

I talk about Personal Growth, Management, Infrastructure and More | 👇JOIN +2k readers 👇

Read more from Vicente Valencia

Hospital PPPs have a bad reputation. Delays. Overpricing. Rigidity. You’ve heard the stories. I remember when I work at ACS that any RFP announcement of a hospital was received as the last Trump’s tweet… We didn’t know what to do about… Let’s now talk about the Alzira Hospital PPP in Spain. Launched in 1999. First of its kind. A full model: Design. Build. Finance. Operate. Not just the building. Healthcare delivery. High risk. High exposure. High scrutiny. And still… It worked. Well… somehow....

Yesterday I learned that the European Union, the climax of bureaucracy in human history, will require passports for all dogs and cats. Some countries want to be wealthy. Others want to lead in technology or AI. Others want to be the best place in the world to do business. In the meantime… the EU is busy with things that will surely make it richer, more prosperous, and a better place to live. I’m telling you this because the EU is not unique. This is everywhere. Every country, government,...

My wife is preparing a yoga retreat. She works hard. She needs “disconnection.” Fair enough. Now… the price? Let’s just say… You’d expect a 5-star hotel. Except the hotel looks… basic. Very basic. And there’s a small detail: There’s no food. No lunch. No dinner. Fasting, they call it. So basically… You pay like you’re getting a Michelin tasting menu… But the experience is: “You don’t eat.” Interesting business model. I don’t know what you think. Maybe you love paying for the “experience.” The...