The $1 Billion Lesson in Arrogance (that taxpayers paid for)


Let me tell you a bedtime story.

It’s about a classic PPP project.

​

However, it’s a bedtime story for the nightmares.

​

It starts in Australia.

Sunshine.

Kangaroos.

And a bunch of brilliant bureaucrats who thought they could outsmart the laws of project finance.

​

The name?

Airport Link Tunnel in Brisbane.
The year? 2010.
The cost? $4.8 billion AUD.
The outcome? A flaming, billion-dollar disaster.

​

You see, they had a vision.

A tunnel linking Brisbane Airport with the city.

As I said… A classic PPP.

​

Except it wasn't.

​
Because here’s what they did:

They forecasted 135,000 vehicles per day.
Actual usage? 56,000.

​
That’s not a small miss. That’s delusion wearing a hi-vis vest.

​

They gave a 45-year concession.

​
Guess how long the private company lasted?
Two years.

​

They put most of the risk on the private sector.
Which sounds sexy in a press release, my friends working for government agencies – I know many of you read this newsletter…

Well…

​

The theory of risk transfer works perfectly… until the private sector runs straight into bankruptcy court.

​

By 2013, BrisConnections, the private consortium behind it, was dead.
Equity wiped.
Investors furious.
Lawsuits flying.
Public confidence? Torched.

And the cherry on top? La guinda, as we say in Spanish?
Retail investors were lured in with aggressive marketing and promises of gold.

​
Some lost their savings.
Others tried to sue.
Many just cried.

Meanwhile, the government shrugged:
​"Not our problem. It was a private failure."

​
Except…

​
Who do you think inherited the road?

Yes…

Yes…

Exactly.

​

We keep saying PPPs are about risk transfer.

​
But what good is transferring risk if you’re handing it to people who believe PowerPoints more than traffic models?

This wasn’t a tunnel.
It was a taxpayer-funded grave for common sense.

​

Moral of the story?
When your traffic forecasts come from a wish and a prayer,
When your risk allocation is designed to impress, not to function,
And when your procurement is driven by headlines, not expertise…

​
You don’t get innovation.
You get insolvency.

Sweet dreams, my friends.

​

By the way… Want more brutal truths about PPPs, minus the buzzwords?
Click below:

$99.90

The 15 Top Lessons of a PPP Project Nightmare

Learn about:
The number 1 killer of Projects
Why this was not going to be just "another construction project, mate"... Read more

​

​

PD 1: If you liked this email, don't keep it in secret and forward it to a friend. They will thank you enormously one day.

PD 2: If somebody has sent you this email and you want to receive emails like this yourself, visit vicentevalencia.com

PD 3: If you want unsubscribe, click the link below.

​

​

Vicente Valencia

I talk about Personal Growth, Management, Infrastructure and More | C-Suite Executive | Mentor, Coach, Strategic Consultant | Real Estate Investor | 👇JOIN +2k readers 👇

Read more from Vicente Valencia

Humiliation can come in many ways. But probably, one of the most humiliating failures a government can suffer in a PPP is the silence. This happened in a mid-sized developed country of the Commonwealth just a few years ago. The government wanted a flagship social infrastructure project: a cluster of new courthouses and justice facilities, spread across regional cities. They framed it as transformational. A “once in a generation” opportunity. Ministers on stage, cameras rolling, the usual...

A couple of days ago I was invited to a podcast. One of the questions I was asked was… “What advice you have for entrepreneurs” Or that kind of question. But the answer was instantaneous. Do, do and do. Many are frozen. Other overwhelmed for all things they have to do. Others are lazy and procrastinators that use busyness to justify inaction. Others want perfection that is one of the worst procrastinators’ behaviours. And they don’t launch or try anything until perfect. And you know that...

I stopped this idea of paying for an hour. It’s outdated. Consultancy as we know it is dead. But many consultants have not realized of that. Paying by the hour encourages inefficiency. It’s easy. Lazy. Change a monthly salary for monthly hours at a rate. Sounds familiar. But it’s wrong. Knowledge cannot be measure in hours. You have it. And you can present it in seconds… not hours. Some people understand this concept. It happened to me a few months ago. A post in LinkedIn about a particular...